Thursday, July 31, 2008
Titanic's Been Unsinkable...Until Dark Knight?
by Joal Ryan
Los Angeles (E! Online) - Ten years after sailing off with $600.8 million, Titanic remains the top-grossing movie of all-time, a title which, up until The Dark Knight onslaught, hasn't been seriously challenged.
Why?
Statistically speaking, says Jeffrey Simonoff, borrowing a famous line from screenwriter William Goldman, "Nobody knows."
Statistically speaking, says Jeffrey Simonoff, borrowing a famous line from screenwriter William Goldman, "Nobody knows."
"Many people have noted if the stock market is a high-risk market, the movies is far riskier," says Simonoff, professor of statistics at New York University's Stern School of Business.
Huge opening weekends and great buzz certainly increase a movie's odds of making lots and lots of money, but beyond that, Simonoff argues, it's all guesswork.
"What Titanic had was the amazing word of mouth that just kept growing and growing," Simonoff says. "[But] it wasn't like after the second weekend people could say this is going to be the No. 1 movie for the next three months."
Actually, Titanic was the No. 1 movie at the weekend box office for about three-and-a-half months, or 15 weeks, the second-longest run in the top spot after E.T., which logged 16 weeks there in 1982.
To Vicki Kunkel, author of upcoming Instant Appeal: The 8 Primal Factors That Create Blockbuster Success, movies that play on and on and on, like Titanic, are the cinematic equivalent of potato chips—one viewing is not enough.
"Titanic pretty much had all the elements that light up the endorphins on the brain," says Kunkel. "Anything that makes us feel good is addictive."
If all blockbuster movies contain like elements, Kunkel points out, then Titanic had all the right elements, including a love story (see: Leonardo DiCaprio's Jack and Kate Winslet's Rose), a self-sacrificing heroine (see: Rose spurn her rich fiancé, Billy Zane's Cal, for poor Jack) and a clear-cut battle between good and bad (see: Jack take on Cal).
Kunkel finds a couple of these key elements, especially the conflict between good and evil, at play in The Dark Knight. She doesn't, however, foresee another bag of potato chips. Or, more precisely, a bigger bag of potato chips.
"We relate more to real people than we do to superheroes," Kunkel says. "And that's when the real addictiveness happens, when we have a deep primal connection."
Christopher Sharrett, professor of communications and film studies at Seton Hall University, thinks there could be a different kind of connection going on between the seriously dark Dark Knight and today's moviegoers.
"It's ripped out of the headlines," Sharrett says. "It's something that appeals to a cynicism of the population."
More than that, Sharrett thinks the untimely death of Heath Ledger, so prominent in The Dark Knight as iconic villain The Joker, is the film's X factor—the something different that, as he sees it, distinguishes the superhero-action movie from all the other recent superhero-action movies.
But does that add up to The Dark Knight moving from $400 million, its certain next stop, all the way to Titanic's $600 million neighborhood?
"For what it's worth," Simonoff says, "I would certainly say it wouldn't be surprising given the way things look like now."
Then again, he says, it wouldn't be surprising if it fell $100 million short.
Says Simonoff: "You can never know for sure."
Up until its release, after all, Titanic was considered a $200 million gamble. Until it paid off. And off. And off.
Philippines at the 2008 Summer Olympics
The Philippines will compete in the 2008 Summer Olympic Games which will be held in Beijing, People's Republic of China from August 8 to August 24, 2008. Approximately 15 athletes from the Philippines will participate in the Games. The delegation's flag bearer at the Opening Ceremony will be boxer Emmanuel Dapidran Pacquiao, who will not be competing.
Archery
Swimming
Diving
Taekwondo
Shooting
Weightlifting
Federer out in Cincinnati, could slip from No. 1
By JOE KAY, AP Sports Writer
MASON, Ohio (AP)—Roger Federer lost another match and, perhaps, his longtime grip on No. 1, as well.
The world’s top-ranked player had another out-of-character setback on Thursday, a three-set loss to Ivo Karlovic that left the Croat exulting on his back and opened the way for Rafael Nadal to take over the No. 1 spot by winning the Cincinnati Masters championship.
Nadal stayed on course for the seismic shift by beating Tommy Haas 6-4, 7-6 (0) later Thursday, reaching the quarterfinals with his 31st consecutive win. Three more wins and the top spot in the world rankings belongs to him next week.
Even if he doesn’t win the championship in Cincinnati, he can pile up enough points to overtake Federer in the next few weeks.
“I know I’m in good position,” Nadal said. “In truth, I don’t think about it too much.”
It’s been a long time coming.
Federer has been ranked No. 1 since Feb. 2, 2004, a record of 235 consecutive weeks. He and Nadal have held the top two spots since July 25, 2005. They will swap if Nadal extends his run of five consecutive tournament titles.
Asked about the possibility, Federer said, “I don’t care.”
He’s got bigger concerns.
Since his epic five-set loss to Nadal at Wimbledon, Federer has lost in the second round in Toronto and failed to make the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, where he won the title last year. The 26-year-old Swiss star has been struggling to regain his aura of domination since he started the year with mononucleosis.
Nadal has taken advantage by improving his hard-court game and surpassing Federer on the court if not in the rankings.
“Look, he’s doing well and I have done well in the past,” Federer said. “This year was hard, I guess, with the start of the year. But nevertheless, I still think it’s been a good year. I just hope I can show it now at the Olympics and the U.S. Open.
“I’m looking forward for the next two tournaments. Those are really the ones that can make this season from a good one to a great one again.”
There was nothing great about his few days in Cincinnati.
Federer needed three sets to get through his first match. Then, he lost for the first time in his career when he didn’t drop a game on his serve. He simply couldn’t crack Karlovic’s tough serve.
Federer had won the six previous times he faced the 6-foot-10 Karlovic, but their matches were close. Federer had won 13 of those 15 sets, although nine ended in tiebreakers.
Appropriately, two of their three sets on Thursday ended in tiebreakers, as well. Using his overpowering serve, Karlovic got the best of them both.
He started the decisive one with a pair of aces—he had 21 overall in the match—and went up 6-3 with a 140 mph serve that Federer couldn’t return. After Karlovic let a couple of match points slip away, Federer hit a backhand long, ending the match.
Karlovic fell on his back and raised his arms in triumph over a win that didn’t totally surprise him.
“I already played against him six times and it was always close, so I knew that I’m going to have a chance today,” Karlovic said.
Earlier, a 19-year-old Latvian who tends to lose concentration during matches and is getting over a soccer injury—one of those teenager moments— upset the last remaining American in the draw. Ernests Gulbis took advantage of James Blake’s erratic serve for a 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 victory, leaving the United States shut out of the quarterfinals for the first time in the tournament’s history.
“Yeah, it’s unfortunate,” Blake said. “I don’t think American tennis is troubled by any means. But the way it is right now, the best players in the world are from Switzerland and Spain.”
The 28-year-old Blake got bounced by a player so inexperienced that he still loses focus on the court and can’t keep himself away from the soccer field. He sprained an ankle while playing soccer with friends this summer, forcing him to miss a couple of weeks on the tour, and was totally out of sync last week while losing in the first round in Toronto.
Given his predicament, Gulbis didn’t expect much.
“To be honest, I didn’t think that it would happen in this tournament because last week I played really bad,” he said. “And I was injured before, so I didn’t do nothing basically for two weeks.”
He had one thing working for him: Gulbis beat Blake to reach the quarterfinals at the French Open, his best showing in a Grand Slam event. Gulbis came in confident and took advantage of Blake’s errant first serve—only 45 percent were in.
“It’s tough to beat a guy like that with a second serve,” Blake said. “He’s got a ton of talent.”
Third-seeded Novak Djokovic also advanced to the quarterfinals, beating Andreas Seppi 6-1, 6-2 to set up a rematch with Gulbis. Djokovic beat the Latvian in three close sets during the quarterfinals of the French Open.
Carlos Moya beat fourth-seeded Nikolay Davydenko in the continuation of a second-round match halted by rain on Wednesday night. A few hours later, Moya beat Igor Andreev to reach the semifinals.
Ivanovic loses at Rogers Cup, No. 1 status at risk
Ivanovic loses at Rogers Cup, No. 1 status at risk
MONTREAL (AP)—Top-ranked Ana Ivanovic was knocked out of the Rogers Cup on Thursday night by Tamira Paszek, giving second-ranked Jelena Jankovic a chance to take over the top spot in women’s tennis if she can reach the final of the tournament.
Paszek, a 17-year-old Austrian ranked 94th in the world, won 6-2, 1-6, 6-2 over Ivanovic, who was playing with a sore right thumb she injured two weeks ago while practicing. The thumb was taped for the match against Paszek, but it was Paszek’s tenacity and some unforced errors from Ivanovic that were her downfall.
Jankovic, a Serbian compatriot of Ivanovic, advanced to the quarterfinals with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Stephanie Dubois, the last Canadian left in the tournament.
Jankovic next will face 19-year-old Dominika Cibulkova, who upset 12th-seeded Nadia Petrova 7-6 (2), 6-2. The 31st-ranked Cibulkova has steadily climbed the rankings. Last week, she defeated Petrova at the Bank of the West Classic in Stanford, Calif.
Svetlana Kuznetsova defeated 15-year-old Michelle Larcher de Brito 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 to advance to the quarterfinals.
Larcher de Brito, a qualifier from Portugal, was ahead 5-4 in the first set before Kuznetsova rallied to win three straight games. Larcher de Brito took a 4-1 lead and cruised in the second set. But the fourth-ranked Kuznetsova broke her serve three times in the third.
“It was a really tough match,” said the 169th-ranked Larcher de Brito. “It was a fun match, actually. I enjoyed myself. It was a good fight.”
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